Prediction of Extreme Temperature in South Sumatra and Its Applications at The End of The 21st Century
AuthorsHamdi Akhsan , Muhammad Romadoni , Melly Ariska
Issue:Vol. 8 No. 2 (2022): April
Keywords:Climate change, Temperature extremes, Forest fires, Greenhouse gases
Articles "Regular Issue"
How to Cite
This study examines trends and variations in extreme temperature indices in Palembang for the period 1980-2020. They are using data from the Indonesian Agency for Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysics, namely the Palembang Climatology Station and the Sultan Mahmud Baharudin II Meteorological Station from the 1981-2020 period, which were analyzed according to the rules of the Expert Team for Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The results obtained based on the analysis showed that the average maximum temperature index (TMAXmean) and the minimum temperature average index (TMINmean) increased significantly with Z values = 5.21 and 7.10. Based on the correlation analysis between time and extreme temperature index, it is possible to predict the occurrence of TMAXmean and TMINmean for the end of the 21st century, namely in 2100 with a value of TMAXmean = 36.1℃ and TMINmean 25.7℃. The TMAXmean event also has a very close correlation with the total area of Forest and Land Fires, as well as the contribution of Greenhouse Gases ( ) in this region. So, it can be concluded that reducing the rate of increase in TMAXmean and TMINmean can be done by not burning forests and land so that the contribution of GHG ( ) to the atmosphere is reduced
Akinbile, C. O., Ogunmola, O. O., Abolude, A. T., & Akande, S. O. (2020). Trends and spatial analysis of temperature and rainfall patterns on rice yields in Nigeria. Atmospheric Science Letters, 21(3), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.944
Aldrian, E. (2001). Pembagian Iklim Indonesia Berdasarkan Pola Curah Hujan Dengan Metoda “ Double Correlation .” Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca, 2(1), 2–11.
Aldrian, E. (2007). Decreasing trends in annual rainfalls over Indonesia: A threat for the national water resource? J. Meteorologi Dan Geofi Sika, 7(April 2007), 40–49.
Ariska, M., Akhsan, H., & Muslim, M. (2020). Dynamic Analysis of Tippe Top on Cylinder’s Inner Surface with and Without Friction based on Routh Reduction. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1467(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1467/1/012040
Ariska, M., Akhsan, H., & Zulherman, Z. (2018). Utilization of Maple-based Physics Computation in Determining the Dynamics of Tippe Top. Jurnal Penelitian Fisika Dan Aplikasinya (JPFA), 8(2), 123. https://doi.org/10.26740/jpfa.v8n2.p123-131
Baeda, A. Y., Pao’Tonan, C., & Abdullah, D. (2019). The correlation between sea surface temperature and MJO incidence in Indonesian waters. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 235(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/235/1/012020
Bhatti, A. S., Wang, G., Ullah, W., Ullah, S., Hagan, D. F. T., Nooni, I. K., Lou, D., & Ullah, I. (2020). Trend in extreme precipitation indices based on long term in situ precipitation records over Pakistan. Water (Switzerland), 12(3), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030797
Chonghua Yin. (1994). Applications of Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) to Statistical Downscaling of Major Regional Climate Variable. 1994.
De Beurs, K. M., Henebry, G. M., Owsley, B. C., & Sokolik, I. N. (2018). Large scale climate oscillation impacts on temperature, precipitation and land surface phenology in Central Asia. Environmental Research Letters, 13(6). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4d0
Dewanti, Y. P., Muliadi, & Adriat, R. (2018). Pengaruh El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Terhadap Curah Hujan di Kalimantan Barat. Prisma Fisika, 6(3), 145–151.
Hafizhurrahman, I., Kunarso, K., & Suryoputro, A. (2015). Pengaruh Iod (Indian Ocean Dipole) Terhadap Variabilitas Nilai Serta Distribusi Suhu Permukaan Laut Dan Klorofil-a Pada Periode Upwelling Di Perairan Sekitar Bukit Badung Bali. Jurnal Oseanografi, 4(2), 138517.
Hermawan, E. (2010). Pengelompokkan Pola Curah Hujan Yang Terjadi Di Beberapa Kawasan P. Sumatera Berbasis Hasil Analisis Teknik Spektral. Jurnal Meteorologi Dan Geofisika, 11(2). https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v11i2.67
IPCC. (2018). IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C. In Ipcc - Sr15. https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf%0Ahttp://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/
Iskandar, I. (2010). Seasonal and interannual patterns of sea surface temperature in Banda Sea as revealed by self-organizing map. Continental Shelf Research, 30(9), 1136–1148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2010.03.003
Iskandar, M. R. (2014). Mengenal Indian Ocean Dipole ( IOD ) dan Dampaknya Pada Perubahan Iklim. XXXIX, 13–21.
Kumar, S., Silva, Y., Moya-Álvarez, A. S., & Martínez-Castro, D. (2019). Seasonal and regional differences in extreme rainfall events and their contribution to the world’s precipitation: GPM observations. Advances in Meteorology, 2019, 6–9. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/4631609
Kutzbach, J. E. (1967). Empirical Eigenvector of Sea-Level Pressure, Surface Temperature and precipitation Comlexes over Nort America. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 6.
Luhwahyudin, M., & Citrosiswoyo, W. (2012). Analisa Perubahan Garis Pantai Tegal dengan Menggunakan Empirical Orthogonal Function ( EOF ). 1.
Misnawati, ., & Perdanawanti, M. (2019). Trend of Extreme Precipitation over Sumatera Island for 1981-2010. Agromet, 33(1), 41–51. https://doi.org/10.29244/j.agromet.33.1.41-51
Ramage, C. S. (1968). Role of a Tropical “Maritime Continent” in The Atmospheric Circulation. June, 365–370.
Saji, N. H., & Vinayachandran, P. N. (1999). A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. 401(September), 360–364.
Sipayung, S. B., Avia, L. Q., Dasanto, B. D., & Sutikno. (2007). Analisis Pola Curah Hu]an Indonesia Berbasis Luaran Model Sirkulasi Global (Gcm). Jurnal Sains Dirgantara, 4(2), 145–154. http://jurnal.lapan.go.id/index.php/jurnal_sains/article/viewFile/669/587
Siswanto, S., Oldenborgh, G. J. Van, Nederlands, K., Instituut, M., Nederlands, K., Instituut, M., Nederlands, K., & Instituut, M. (2015). Perubahan suhu , curah hujan ekstrim , dan curah hujan diurnal di kota Jakarta yang mengalami urbanisasi di masa lalu. November 2018.
Siswanto, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., van der Schrier, G., Jilderda, R., & van den Hurk, B. (2016). Temperature, extreme precipitation, and diurnal rainfall changes in the urbanized Jakarta city during the past 130 years. International Journal of Climatology, 36(9), 3207–3225. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4548
Steven W. Lyons. (1982). Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis Of Hawaiian Rainfall. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 21, 1713.
Swenson, L. M., & Grotjahn, R. (2019). Using self-organizing maps to identify coherent conus precipitation regions. Journal of Climate, 32(22), 7747–7761. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0352.1
Tavakol, A., Rahmani, V., & Harrington, J. (2020). Evaluation of hot temperature extremes and heat waves in the Mississippi River Basin. Atmospheric Research, 239(February), 104907. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104907
YIN, H., & SUN, Y. (2018). Characteristics of extreme temperature and precipitation in China in 2017 based on ETCCDI indices. Advances in Climate Change Research, 9(4), 218–226. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2019.01.001
Zhan, Y. J., Ren, G. Y., Shrestha, A. B., Rajbhandari, R., Ren, Y. Y., Sanjay, J., Xu, Y., Sun, X. B., You, Q. L., & Wang, S. (2017). Changes in extreme precipitation events over the Hindu Kush Himalayan region during 1961–2012. Advances in Climate Change Research, 8(3), 166–175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.08.002
Zhou, B., Xu, Y., Wu, J., Dong, S., & Shi, Y. (2016). Changes in temperature and precipitation extreme indices over China: Analysis of a high-resolution grid dataset. International Journal of Climatology, 36(3), 1051–1066. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4400
Copyright (c) 2022 Melly Ariska, Hamdi Akhsan, Muhammad Romadoni
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.Authors who publish with Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA, agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY License). This license allows authors to use all articles, data sets, graphics, and appendices in data mining applications, search engines, web sites, blogs, and other platforms by providing an appropriate reference. The journal allows the author(s) to hold the copyright without restrictions and will retain publishing rights without restrictions.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).