El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Rise of Extreme Temperatures in Eastern Sumatra: Exploring Climate Change Dynamics
DOI:
10.29303/jppipa.v9i2.3084Published:
2023-02-28Issue:
Vol. 9 No. 2 (2023): FebruaryResearch Articles
Downloads
How to Cite
Downloads
Metrics
Abstract
The Indonesian region is affected by the monsoon system, which leads to a rainy season in December-March and a dry season in June-September. Global warming caused by human activities is increasing the risk of extreme climate events like floods, droughts, etc. The study aims to analyze the trends and correlations of extreme temperatures in the South Sumatra coastal area and its relationship with the DMI and Nino 3.4 indices. The four-stage research methodology includes data collection, extreme temperature index calculation, trend detection and correlation analysis with ENSO. Results indicate that the region has seen a rise in temperature, with hot day/night temperatures increasing by 0.26-0.29°C per decade and cold day/night temperatures by 2-3°C per 100-1000 years. A strong correlation was found between the DMI index and daily maximum/minimum temperatures, as well as between the Nino 3.4 index and the Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR). The study projects that nighttime temperatures will increase faster than daytime temperatures in the future, with a proportional correlation between the Nino 3.4 index and extreme temperatures
References
Aguilar, E., Montagnani, L., Galvan, D., & Maisa, A. (2009). Changes In Temperature And Precipitation Extremes In Western Central Africa, Guinea Conakry, And Zimbabwe, 1955-2006. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 114(2). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011010.
Aldrian, E., Karmini, M., & Budiman. (2011). Adaptasi Dan Mitigasi Perubahan Iklim Di Indonesia. Jakarta, Indonesia: Pusat Perubahan Iklim dan Kualitas Udara BMKG.
Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana. (2016). Ancaman Hidrometeorologi Semakin Meningkat. Jakarta, Indonesia: Gema BNPB.
Caminade, C., Kovats, S., Rocklov, J., Tompkins, A. M., Morse, A. P., Colón-González, F. J., Stenlund, H., Martens, P., & Lloyd, S. J. (2014). Impact Of Climate Change On Global Malaria Distribution. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America, 111(9), 3286–3291. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302089111.
Choi, G., Kim, Y. J., Kim, S. W., Kim, S. H., & Kim, J. H. (2009). Changes In Means And Extreme Events Of Temperature And Precipitation In The Asia-Pacific Network Region, 1955–2007. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 1906–1925. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1979
Hendon, H. H. (2003). Indonesian Rainfall Variability: Impacts of ENSO and Local Air-Sea Interaction. Journal of Climate, 16, 1775-1790. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442
IPCC. (2012). Managing The Risks Of Extreme Events And Disasters To Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report Of Working Groups I And II Of The Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom And New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. Retreived from https://www.ipcc.ch/report/managing-the-risks-of-extreme-events-and-disasters-to-advance-climate-change-adaptation/
IPCC. (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution Of Working Group I To The Fifth Assessment Report Of The Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom And New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324
IPCC. (2018). IPCC Special Report On The Impacts Of Global Warming Of 1.5°C. Retreived from: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
Iskandar, I., Lestari, D. O., Utari, P. A., Supardi, Rozirwan, Khakim, M. Y. N., Poerwono, P., & Setiabudidaya, D. (2018). Evolution and impact of the 2016 negative Indian Ocean Dipole. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 985(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/985/1/012017.
Lestari, D. O., Sutriyono, E., Sabaruddin, S., & Iskandar, I. (2018). Respective influences of Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Indonesian precipitation. Journal of Mathematical Fundamental Sciences, 50(3), 257–272. https://doi.org/10.5614/j.math.fund
Marlier, M. E., Defries, R. S., Voulgarakis, A., Kinney, P. L., Randerson, J. T., Shindell, D. T., Chen, Y., & Faluvegi, G. (2013). El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Climate Change, 3(2), 131-136. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1658
Philander, S. G. (1989). El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation. Academic Press, 46, 293.
Saha, K. (2010). Tropical Circulation Systems and Monsoons. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, New York.
Saji, N. H., & Yamagata, T. (2003). Structure Of SST And Surface Wind Variability During Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Events: COADS Observations. Journal of Climate, 16(16), 2735-2751. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442
Saji, N. H., Goswami, B. N., Vinayachandran, P. N., & Yamagata, T. (1999). A Dipole Mode In The Tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401(6751), 360-363. https://doi.org/10.1038/43854
Siswanto, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., van der Schrier, G., Jilderda, R., & van den Hurk, B. (2016). Temperature, Extreme Precipitation, And Diurnal Rainfall Changes In The Urbanized Jakarta City During The Past 130 Years. International Journal of Climatology, 36(9), 3207-3225. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4548
Stooksbury, D. E., Idso, C. D., & Hubbard, K. G. (1999). The Effects Of Data Gaps On The Calculated Monthly Mean Maximum And Minimum Temperatures In The Continental United States: A Spatial And Temporal Study. Journal of Climate, 12, 1524-1533. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442
Supari, Tangang, F., Juneng, L., Cruz, F., Chung, J. X., Ngai, S. T., Salimun, E., Mohd, M. S., Santisirisomboon, J., Singhruck, P., PhanVan, T., Ngo-Duc, T., Narisma, G., Aldrian, E., Gunawan, D., & Sopaheluwakan, A. (2020). Multi-model projections of precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX-Southeast Asia Simulations. Environmental Research, 184, 109350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109350
Supari, F., Tangang, F., Juneng, L., & Aldrian, E. (2017). Observed Changes In Extreme Temperature And Precipitation Over Indonesia. International Journal Of Climatology, 37(4), 1979-1997. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4829
Supari, F., Tangang, F., Salimun, E., Aldrian, E., Sopaheluwakan, A., & Juneng, L. (2018). ENSO Modulation Of Seasonal Rainfall And Extremes In Indonesia. Climate Dynamics, 51(7), 2559-2580. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-4028-8
Tan, M. L., Juneng, L., Tangang, F. T., Chung, J. X., & Firdaus, R. B. R. (2020). Changes In Temperature Extremes And Their Relationship With ENSO In Malaysia From 1985 To 2018. International Journal of Climatology, 41(S1). https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6864
Tank, K. A. M., Zwiers, F. W., & Zhang, X. (2009). Guidelines On Analysis Of Extremes In A Changing Climate In Support Of Informed Decisions For Adaptation. Geneva, Switzerland. Retreived from: https://www.ecad.eu/documents/WCDMP_72_TD_1500_en_1.pdf
Utari, P. A., Khakim, M. Y. N., Setiabudidaya, D., & Iskandar, I. Dipole, (2019). Dynamics of 2015 positive Indian Ocean. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science, 69(1), 75. https://doi.org/10.1071/es19002
Wang, X. L., & Feng, Y. (2013). RHtestsV4 User manual. Climatic Research Division, Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada. Retreived from: http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/RHtest/RHtestsV4_UserManual_10Dec2014.pdf
Webster, P. J., Moore, A., Loschnigg, J. P., & Leben, R. R. (1999). Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics In The Indian Ocean During 1997-98. Nature, 401(6751), 356-360. https://doi.org/10.1038/43848
Webster, P.J. and Fasullo, J., 2003. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences. Holton, J. & Curry, JA (eds.), pp.1370-1386. https://doi.org/10.1016/B0-12-227090-8/00236-0
Worldometer. (2022). CO2 emissions by country. Worldometer - real time world statistics. Retreived from: https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-by-country/
Yamagata, T., Behera, S. K., Luo, J., Masson, S., Jury, M. R., & Rao, S. A. (2004). Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Variability In The Tropical Indian Ocean. Geophysical Monograph Series, 147, 189-211. https://doi.org/10.1029/147GM12
Zhang, X., Alexander, L., Hegerl, G. C., Jones, P., Tank, A. K., Peterson, T. C., Trewin, B., & Zwiers, F. W. (2011). Indices For Monitoring Changes In Extremes Based On Daily Temperature And Precipitation Data. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2(6), 851-870. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147
Author Biographies
Hamdi Akhsan, Universitas Sriwijaya
Muhammad Irfan, Universitas Sriwijaya
Iskhaq Iskandar, Universitas Sriwijaya
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Hamdi Akhsan, Muhammad Irfan, Iskhaq Iskandar
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA, agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY License). This license allows authors to use all articles, data sets, graphics, and appendices in data mining applications, search engines, web sites, blogs, and other platforms by providing an appropriate reference. The journal allows the author(s) to hold the copyright without restrictions and will retain publishing rights without restrictions.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).