Determinants of Food Security in Rice-Surplus Districts of North Sumatra: An Integrated Panel Data and Structural Equation Modeling Approach

Authors

DOI:

10.29303/jppipa.v11i10.11618

Published:

2025-10-25

Downloads

Abstract

This study investigates the factors influencing food security in rice-surplus districts of North Sumatra, Indonesia, during 2018–2023. Using secondary panel data, we apply Fixed Effect Models and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to assess the relationships among rice availability, consumption, and food security. The availability of rice is significantly influenced by production levels, market prices, harvested area, and consumption patterns, while land productivity has no significant effect—suggesting inefficiencies in translating higher yields into accessible supply. Rice consumption is shaped by production, income, and population size but remains unaffected by price fluctuations. PLS-SEM findings reveal that food availability enhances access to food but can negatively affect nutrient absorption and food security directly, possibly due to limited dietary diversity or inadequate nutrition knowledge. However, access and absorption act as key mediators, ultimately improving overall food security. These results emphasize that increasing food availability alone is insufficient. Effective policies must also promote equitable access and improved nutrient utilization to ensure sustainable food security outcomes. By clarifying the complex linkages between food production, distribution, and utilization in rice-abundant regions, this study offers strategic insights for designing integrated, region-specific food security policies.

Keywords:

Food access, Food security, North Sumatra, Rice availability

References

Acintya, R., Kinanthi, H. D., Kuncoro, A. B., Arifianto, D., Nuswantara, G. R., Ardiaghaza, R. A., Raihani, T. E. N. B., & Putri, N. A. (2024). Impact of Rice Field Conversion on the Availability of Rice in Banyumas Regency, Central Java Province. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1313(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1313/1/012033

Ahmad, M.-J., & Choi, K.-S. (2021). Climate-induced perspective variations in irrigation schedules and design water requirements for the rice–wheat system. Agronomy, 11(10). https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11102006

An, D. (2023). A simultaneous equations approach to analyze the sustainable water-energy-food nexus in South Korea. Environmental Research Communications, 5(9). https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acfb61

Ariesa, Y., & Khairani, R. (2020). Food Security Model in North Sumatra Province. Journal of Research in Business, Economics, and Education, 2(5), 958–966. Retrieved from https://www.neliti.com/id/publications/438242/food-security-model-in-north-sumatra-province

Be, E. (2022). Impact of Rice Production, Rice Supply And Rice Prices on Food Security in North Timor District. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Agribisnis, 19(3), 407–417. https://doi.org/10.17358/jma.19.3.407

Cahyono, T. W., Tokuda, H., & Waryanto, B. (2024). Households rice demand in East Kalimantan : A QUAIDS approach. BIO Web of Conferences, 02018, 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1051/bioconf/202411902018

Dixon, J. M., Weerahewa, J., Hellin, J., Rola-Rubzen, M. F., Huang, J., Kumar, S., Das, A., Qureshi, M. E., Krupnik, T. J., Shideed, K., Jat, M. L., Prasad, P. V. V., Yadav, S., Irshad, A., Asanaliev, A., Abugalieva, A., Karimov, A., Bhattarai, B., Balgos, C. Q., … Timsina, J. (2021). Response and resilience of Asian agrifood systems to COVID-19: An assessment across twenty-five countries and four regional farming and food systems. Agricultural Systems, 193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103168

Dyah, A., Eva Claudia Boru, L., Kiki, N., & Endar, P. (2024). Food security strategy National Food Security Strategy To Improve Economic Independence and Competitiveness In The Framework Of National Resilience. Southeast Asia Journal of Graduate of Islamic Business And Economics, 2(3), 100–105. https://doi.org/10.37567/sajgibe.v2i3.3039

Ehidiamen, T., & Moshood, B. (2023). Exploring and Validating Performance Measurement Domains of Community Pharmacists Using Structural Equation Modeling : Implications and Recommendations for Research. Journal of Scientific Research and Reports, 29(1), 38–47. https://doi.org/10.9734/JSRR/2023/v29i11726

Fatmah, Lestari, F., & El-Matury, H. J. (2022). Social, economic, cultural resilience, and discipline role of the North Sumatera Province Government in the COVID-19 management. Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam Dan Lingkungan, 12(2), 330–334. https://doi.org/10.29244/jpsl.12.2.330-334

Habib, M. H. (2024). Studi ragam perspektif kebijakan pangan di Indonesia. Sustainable Urban Development and Environmental Impact Journal, 1(1), 36–45. https://doi.org/10.61511/sudeij.v1i1.2024.908

Hartatik, E. S., Wasino, Handayani, T., & Sudarsih, S. (2023). Village Barn in Coastal Area of Java, From “Lumbung Desa” to Village Unit Cooperative in Demak-Grobogan. Paramita, 33(2), 280–291. https://doi.org/10.15294/paramita.v33i2.43880

Hartwell, H., Appleton, K. M., Bray, J., Price, S., Mavridis, I., Giboreau, A., & Ronge, M. (2019). Shaping smarter consumer food choices : The FoodSMART project. Nutrition Bulletin, 44, 138–144. https://doi.org/10.1111/nbu.12376

Hasanah, N. E. N., Harianto, H., & Suryana, A. (2024). Food Security On Dryland Farm Households in Selo Sub-District, Boyolali District. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Agribisnis, 21(3), 387–396. https://doi.org/10.17358/jma.21.3.387

Henseler, J., Ringle, C. M., & Sarstedt, M. (2015). A New Criterion for Assessing Discriminant Validity in Variance-based A new criterion for assessing discriminant validity in variance-based structural equation modeling. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 43, 115–135. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11747-014-0403-8

Herwanti, S., Febryano, I. G., Yuwono, S. B., Alfatikha, M., Prasetia, H., Tsani, M. K., & Surnayanti. (2022). The Role of Agroforestry in Supporting Food Security in Small Islands (Case in Pahawang Island, Indonesia). International Journal of Design and Nature and Ecodynamics, 17(6), 853–861. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijdne.170605

Kholidah, L. N., Pangestuti, D. R., Lisnawati, N., & Asna, A. F. (2023). The Effect of Food Accessibility on Family Food Preference Practices in Semarang during a Pandemic. Amerta Nutrition, 7(2SP), 238–246. https://doi.org/10.20473/amnt.v7i2SP.2023.23

Kurniawan, K., Budhi, M. K. S., Yasa, I. N. M., Tisnawati, N. M., Henrianto, H., & Trya, D. A. (2025). Comparing the Effect of Food Security on Life Expectancy in Kalimantan and Sulawesi. Diponegoro Journal of Economics, 14(2), 99-107. https://doi.org/10.14710/djoe.49293

Laiprakobsup, T. (2019). The policy effect of government assistance on the rice production in Southeast Asia: Comparative case studies of Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Development Studies Research, 6(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1080/21665095.2019.1568900

Lindawati, L., Zulfida, I., Nasution, S. K. H., & Handayani, S. (2024). Multi-aspect Analysis of Rice Sustainability in the Improvement of Rice Production in North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. Agro Bali : Agricultural Journal, 7(2), 390–398. https://doi.org/10.37637/ab.v7i2.1741

Lo, C. (2024). Cultivation Of Healthy Rice Towards Food Security For Rural Farming Households. Journal of Social Impact and Community Engagement, 1(1), 18-27. Retrieved from https://jociase.ekasakti.id/index.php/Jociase/article/view/3

Luna, K., & Bullecer, E. (2020). Rural and Urban Differences in Household Food Insecurity and Diet Diversity of Preschool Children (PSC) in Occidental Mindoro. Acta Medica Philippina, 54(5), 558–566. https://doi.org/10.47895/amp.v54i5.2254

Lyu, H., Dong, Z., & Pande, S. (2021). Securing food under adverse climate and socioeconomic scenarios in Jiangsu Province, China: Critical role of human adaptation under change. Journal of Hydrology, 598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126344

Mansaray, B., & Jin, S. (2020). Do the determinants of food security differ in improved rice variety adoption? Evidence from Sierra Leone. Open Agriculture, 5(1), 466–484. https://doi.org/10.1515/opag-2020-0047

Moqbel, M., Guduru, R., & Harun, A. (2020). Testing mediation via indirect effects in PLS-SEM : A social networking site illustration Testing mediation via indirect effects in PLS-SEM : A social networking site illustration. Data Analysis Perspecitves Journal, 1(3), 1–6. Retrieved from https://scholarworks.utrgv.edu/is_fac/30/

Mughal, M., & Sers, C. (2020). Cereal production, undernourishment, and food insecurity in South Asia. Review of Development Economics, 24(2), 524 – 545. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12659

Muliandari, N. A., & Nasrudin, R. (2025). Evidence on the Beneficial Impact of Food Voucher Programs in Java Island. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 26(18), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.23917/jep.v26i1.10693

Ningsih, I. R. D., & Hendrarini, H. (2024). Panel Data Analysis of Harvested Area, Rice Price, Consumption, and Population in Determining Food Security in East Java. Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, 21(2), 27-38. https://doi.org/10.20956/jsep.v21i2.45894

Pandey, S., Sulser, T., Rosegrant, M., & Bhandari, H. (2010). Rice Price Crisis : Causes , Impacts , and Solutions. Asian Journal of Agricultural and Development, 7(2), 1–15. Retrieved from https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/199086/files/AJAD_2010_7_2_1Pandey.pdf

Praza, R., & Shamadiyah, N. (2020). Analisis Hubungan Pengeluaran Dengan Ketahanan Pangan Rumah Tangga Petani Di Kabupaten Aceh Utara. Agrifo: Jurnal Agribisnis Universitas Malikussaleh, 5(1), 23. https://doi.org/10.29103/ag.v5i1.2735

Rejeb, A., Rejeb, K., Appolloni, A., Iranmanesh, M., Treiblmaier, H., & Jagtap, S. (2022). Exploring Food Supply Chain Trends in the COVID-19 Era : A Bibliometric Review. Sustainability, 14(12437), 2–33. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141912437

Suirlan, R., & Nurnaningsih, N. (2024). Analysis of Sustainable Food Sector Development in the Sumatra Island. Sriwijaya International Journal of Dynamic Economics and Business, 8(July), 107–128. https://doi.org/10.29259/sijdeb.v8i1.107-128

Sulistyaningrum, E. (2016). Household Expenditure in Response To Natural Disasters. Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business, 29(3), 257–272. https://doi.org/10.22146/jieb.10315

Susanti, N., & Gusvita, H. (2023). Analisis Ketahanan Pangan pada Rumah Tangga Petani Padi Sawah di Nagari IV Koto Mudiek Kecamatan Batang Kapas Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan. Jurnal Research Ilmu Pertanian, 3(1), 35-42. https://doi.org/10.31933/0hd8wm39

Tampubolon, Y. R., Simanungkalit, F. J., & Ritha, J. (2021). Securing Food Security: System for Rice Intensification Method to Produce More with Less Resources in North Sumatra, Indonesia. Journal of Research in Agriculture and Animal Science, 8(5), 1–6. Retrieved from https://shorturl.at/ITU52

Winarno, B., Lestari, S., Ramawati, & Syabana, T. A. A. (2022). Food security prospects of rural community in the change and degraded peatland landscape of South Sumatra. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1107(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1107/1/012037

Yamin, M., Ellysa, P. N., & Damayanthy, D. (2024). Impact of sustainable agricultural cultivation system policy on food security and welfare of rice farmers in south Sumatra province, Indonesia. Food Research, 8, 7–13. https://doi.org/10.26656/fr.2017.8(S8).1

Yuniarti, D., Purwaningsih, Y., Soesilo, A., & Suryantoro, A. (2022). Food Diversification and Dynamic Food Security: Evidence from Poor Households. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 23(1), 43–55. https://doi.org/10.23917/jep.v23i1.16302

Yusri, M., Tirtayasa, S., Siregar, M. S., & Kartaatmaja, R. S. (2021). a Confirmatory Analysis of Food Security in North Sumatera. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Agribisnis, 18(1), 64–77. https://doi.org/10.17358/jma.18.1.64

Zamanialaei, M., McCarty, J. L., Fain, J. J., & Hughes, M. R. (2022). Understanding the perceived indicators of food sovereignty and food security for rice growers and rural organizations in Mazandaran Province, Iran. Agriculture and Food Security, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-022-00386-1

Author Biographies

Mitra Musika Lubis, Universitas Medan Area

Koko Junaidi, Universitas Prima Indonesia

Safruddin, Universitas Asahan

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

How to Cite

Lubis, M. M., Junaidi, K., & Safruddin, S. (2025). Determinants of Food Security in Rice-Surplus Districts of North Sumatra: An Integrated Panel Data and Structural Equation Modeling Approach. Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA, 11(10), 189–196. https://doi.org/10.29303/jppipa.v11i10.11618