A System Dynamics Model for Resilient and Sustainable Corn Procurement System Design in the Feed Industry
DOI:
10.29303/jppipa.v12i9.15139Published:
2026-09-30Downloads
Abstract
The poultry feed industry in Belu Regency faces the challenge of seasonal corn availability, which has the potential to disrupt production continuity. This research aims to design an optimal corn procurement system thru a dynamic system modelling approach. The methodology includes stakeholder data collection, the creation of Causal Loop Diagrams and Stock and Flow Diagrams using Vensim PLE, as well as model validation thru MAPE testing, face validation, and sensitivity analysis. The verified model was then simulated in three procurement scenarios: involving farmers and distributors, the implementation of the Government Purchase Price (HPP) with BUMDES/Cooperative institutions, and mass procurement each harvest season. The simulation results show that the HPP Scenario yields the lowest total cost of Rp25.74 billion, stabilizes prices and supply, and minimizes the risk of overstock and raw material damage. In contrast, the bulk procurement scenario carries a high risk of excessive storage costs, while the basic model results in more expensive fluctuating costs. In conclusion, the intervention of government benchmark pricing policies and the strengthening of local storage institutions are the most effective strategies to balance industrial supply and demand. This scenario is recommended as a strategic blueprint to ensure production sustainability and operational cost efficiency
Keywords:
Corn procurement Poultry feed industry Seasonal supply Simulation model System dynamicsReferences
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