Analysis of Meteorological Drought Propagation to Hydrological Drought in the Tarei Watershed, Sumbawa River Basin
DOI:
10.29303/jppipa.v12i9.15634Published:
2026-09-30Downloads
Abstract
Drought is a type of natural disaster that progresses slowly and persists over an extended period until the rainy season arrives. Deficit in precipitation is referred to as meteorological drought, deficiency in soil moisture is defined as agricultural drought, and shortages in groundwater, river streamflow, and lake storage are known as hydrological drought. Monitoring and predicting drought are crucial activities to anticipate and mitigate its impacts. This study aims to determine the drought indices and the propagation of meteorological drought into hydrological drought in the Tarei Watershed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) methods. The SPI and SSI methods can identify potential droughts, as precipitation and discharge are the primary indicators of meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. The propagation of meteorological drought to hydrological drought was then analyzed using Pearson Correlation. The drought analysis using the SPI method in the Tarei Watershed revealed that the "exceptionally dry" category occurred in December 2001, February 2004, March 2012, and January 2023, with drought indices of -2.445, -2.633, -2.332, and -2.177, respectively. Meanwhile, using the SSI method, hydrological drought in the Tarei Watershed under the "exceptionally dry" category occurred in March 2022, October 2023, March 2024, and March 2025, with drought indices of -3.515, -2.773, -3.048, and -2.425, respectively. Drought propagation was evaluated by correlating SPI values against SSI using 1-month, 2-month, and 3-month time steps. The highest 1-month correlation occurred at a 0-month lag with a value of 0.683, while the 2-month and 3-month methods yielded the highest correlation values of 0.955 and 0.950, respectively. These results indicate a strong correlation between hydrological and meteorological drought in the Tarei Watershed, which can serve as a guideline for anticipating hydrological drought
Keywords:
Drought Hydrological drought Meteorological drought TareiReferences
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